Toilets

I know I know that it is not what you would expect, but yea sorry today's topic is about toilet. So my new place is a 20 year old house and I really want to replace the outdated toilets. So I got Kohler toilets from Homedepot, each costs about $190. My contractor asks for $100 per installation. And I have to say that these Kohler toilets are the best I have used. It flushes with a strong pull, and it is very quiet in both the flush and water refill. It is just amazing. It just shows if you pay attention to details, you could really get things/products done in a way that would delight your customer. Kudos to both Kohler and my contractor.

Anyway, if you live in central New Jersey and you need to replace your old toilets and you are not a DIY person, I could give you my contractor's number. You cannot beat the $100 price.

Comcast horrible service

In my recent move, I have run into Comcast's atrocious service. It is a textbook case of how not to serve your customer. First it appears straightforward that you just login to your comcast account and then find the move service web site and fill in the information. so far so good, but then you discovered it just starts. Comcast asks you to have an online chat with an agent once you fill in all the information. I was shocked when I was asked to do that. I cried it loud wtf? I mean what else is preventing Comcast from completely automating this simple process? what could be so confusing? then I basically need to repeat all my information to the online agent which I told her/him bluntly that online chat is the worst form of customer service. it is slow, and you feel lost since you don't get any immediate response, you almost want to yell it loud. Then after twenty minutes or so giving the agent the information all over again, the agent told me this, "sir, sorry, I cannot transfer your service to the new address yet since the current owner hasn't put in a disconnect service request yet.". I was like, "are you kidding me? why does it matter whether the current owner has put in a request or not? He is moving out in two weeks and I am moving in. So it makes perfect sense for me to put in a transfer request and you should find a way to get it done". and all I got back was, "sir, sorry but the computer won't allow me do it. Please call me again in a week or two. Is there anything else I can help you with"? To that, I was like, "yea, you could help me to put in the transfer request". we went back and forth for another two rounds and then I have to call it quit as I realized that I am not going to get anywhere.

So a week to two later I called Comcast (I really hate the online chat) back and ask the phone agent to put in the transfer request. and after 5 minutes I got back the same answer that the current service at the my future home hasn't received a disconnect request yet so my transfer request cannot go through.

So after I moved in, I called Comcast back and the auto phone told me that their service is from 7am to 10pm and asked me to call back again during their business hour. Here is the interesting part. All the service (internet and tv) works fine for me. To be a good citizen I don't want to use the service for free, and I need to make sure Comcast did disconnect the service at my old place. So I went online again. it is another 30 minutes torture but this time it finally went through. I told the online agent that all services are working so no need to send a cable guy to my new place to which the online agent just told me that they need to send a cable guy to make sure the service is solid. I finally gave me and pick a time slot on Saturday.

On Saturday the cable guy came. and He told me the cable that connected from outside of the house into the house is too outdated and he is going to put in a new one. I was like, "mang, it is working fine. my TV and internet are fine. but if you insist then...". and he insisted. 30 minutes later he is basically done, he also replaced my five year old cable box with a new cable box (but they look exactly the same and function almost the same.) I haven't noticed any difference yet.

And at night when I was watching a on-demand CSI, I found there was issue with the signal. the picture would twist for a second every five to 10 minutes. At that point I was beyond angry.

Whoever in Comcast that is in charge of the information service, and installation service should be fired immediately. They are beyond incompetent. They are just simply outdated.

On Sunday I received a call from my real estate agent that the new owner of my old place was not able to get a Comcast internet service since I haven't disconnect my service there yet. I am not angry anymore. I just feel lucky I am not a Comcast shareholder. And I could barely imagine what a torture NBC guys must feel now that they are part of Comcast.

I am going to call Comcast to come to fix the signal first. then I am going to call Comcast to tell them that I want to cancel my service cause I am switching to Verizon FIOS.

Nobel peace prize

I want to pay my highest respect to Xiaobo Liu, this year's Nobel peace prize winner. I have followed him for many years, reading his articles on the web wherever I could find them, mainly from cnd.org.

Now China is an all powerful country, has vast resources, being it military, economic, or propaganda etc at its disposal. It just seems ridiculous to me that the party and the government chose to put everything on the line in order to make one private citizen's life miserable. And I am really surprised that with a huge think tank base, no one could come up a wise solution to allow the party to save face and move beyond this case. Everyone that is involved in the fiasco should be fired. I mean, come on, it is 21st century, anyone that involved in the case should be put on trial. The outrage really drove me speechless.

Basement

If you are buying a house and wants a basement, make sure you do your due diligence there before making an offer.
1. Make sure the height of the basement is enough for a nice finish if the basement hasn't been finished yet.
2. Make sure there is no water leakage
3. Make sure the sum pump is working, and sum pump pit is dry. (you might want to take a flash light with you for the pit inspection. dry means your basement is in good shape)
4. Last of all, make sure it is big enough for whatever activity you plan for it
5. You might also want to take a contractor (with a good reputation) with you if you are buying a old house (more than 20 years old) so they could give you good advice and good assessment if it needs to be finished or any repair.

Change Address

So a very annoying thing need to be taken care of is to notify about 100 vendors, your employer, banks, credit cards, utilities, post offices, subscriptions, netflix, Amazon, eBay, you name it, and your friends.

And I am surprised that no internet startup is aiming to help us out there. Is it because there is no easy to monetize it? or no one thinks changing address is a hassle?

I hope my blog readers would follow through this idea and have a great run with it. Good Luck.

I am back

It is not an easy job to have a regular and interesting post going. I am back to give it another run. I just moved in to the "new" old house and sold my old one. So the following series are going to focus on buying, selling, and all the dangers they entail. Please come back after a break.

Chaos theory and financial crisis

You may have heard butterfly effect before, that a butterfly flips its wing in new york central park might cause a sand storm in Beijing a month later; or you might remember in the movie Jurassic park Dr. Ian Malcom demonstrated chaos theory Dr. Ellie Sattler with a water drop on her hand. Essentially chaos theory statesthat it is impossible to make a long term prediction in a dynamic systems even if the system is deterministic if the system is  very sensitive to a tiny difference in the input.

Without any substantial proof I declare the financial system a chaotic system. Under the chaos theory we shouldn't be surprised by the financial crisis then. We think we have built very sound mathematical models to identify risk, to distribute risk, to hedge  risk, to insure risk, in a word, to control and comprehend risk. we didn't know that at the same time we were also building a huge dynamic systems that is very complicated and would be sensitive to small input changes. Given the unpredictable nature of human beings being part of the system, it was amazing that we think we be able to predict the future of financial system. If we truly understand the chaotic nature of the financial system we wouldn't make so many risk bets then; regulators won't be so sure about the regulation then; Fed won't be so sure about their interest tweak; we would move in a slower pace.

Doing nothing sometimes is OK; doing things slowly is OK as well.

What will NY152 say today, I wonder. I turn on my computer. I wait impatiently as it connects. I go online, and my breath catches in my chest until I hear three little words: You've got mail. I hear nothing. Not even a sound on the streets of New York, just the beating of my own heart. I have mail. From you. -- From You've Got Mail, by Kathleen Kelly

Apple becomes underdog again

So Android phones sold more than iPhone in the second quarter according to some data from NPD or Gartner. First, quantity has nothing to do with quality. Now I am an iPhone fanboy, and I still think iPhone 4 is the best phone out there, and i am actually very relieved (or semi excited) as a consumer that Apple has become an underdog at least in the quantity factor. I am sure this would drive Apple engineer to work even harder, and would also make Apple to make iPhone available on Verizon and other carriers sooner. I am sure as a consumer I would benefit from the fierce competition between Google'sAndroid and Apple's iOS, Apple's hardware and HTC's and Motorola's. However, I am also an Apple share holder and I am not sure the competition would benefit me as an Apple share holder at all.

Warren Buffet once gave a powerful presentation at a summer Idaho sun valley retreat. In that presentation he mentioned that return for trend chasing investor was miserable. For example, airplane might be a great invention and many company competed in the airline industry but as a whole there had been zero money made from the aggregate of all stock investment in the airline industry in history. We could certainly recall the painful lesson chasing the internet stocks in the early 2000s.

Palm Inc., and probably its share holders have been the first victim of this phenomena. Nokia is in the middle of becoming a second victim. RIMM has lost its momentum and is looking to be the third one even if they are to make a switch to use Android.

How would this fierce competition affect AT&T and Verizon stock performance? As more people upgrade to smartphones AT&T and Verizon should be able to reap the benefits of more data plan charges. Moreover, they don't face global competition at all unless congress passes a law to force them to share their bandwidth. Currently both AT&T and VZ have a dividend yield of more than 6 pct. I think they are good diversification for your investment portfolio.

Buyer be aware.

Disclosure: long apple and google. No position on VZ and T.

Well... if he's not here, he has a reason, because there is not a cruel or careless bone in his body. But I wouldn't expect you to understand anybody like that. You with your theme park, multi-level, homogenize-the-world mochaccino land. You've deluded yourself into thinking that you're some sort of benefactor, bringing books to the masses. But no one will ever remember you, Joe Fox. And maybe no one will remember me, either, but plenty of people remember my mother, and they think she was fine, and they think her store was something special. You are nothing but a suit! -- From You've Got Mail, by Kathleen Kelly

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness.

As I was reading the novel on iBooks I couldn't help saying to myself the above wording presciently describe our current affair. We are in the age of anxiety, in the age of uncertainty, in the age of lost confidence, in the age of instantaneous satisfaction, in the age of iPhone and Android, in the age of Google and Facebook,  in the age of netflix and itunes, in the age of super rich and absolutely poor and everything between, in the age of gene modified corn, salmon, in the age of organic food, in the age that we have everything and in the age we have nothing indeed. It is the best of times, it is the worst of times.

Here is Mr.Dickens again:

It was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way - in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

-- Charles Dickens,  A Tale of Two Cities

Because we're going to sell them cheap books and legal addictive stimulants. In the meantime, we'll just put up a big sign: "Coming soon: a FoxBooks superstore and the end of civilization as you know it."

-- You've Got Mail, by Joe Fox

You've Got Mail (Deluxe Edition)

Conforming Loan Limits

So i am in the market for buying a house and in recent weeks my wife and I found two places we like. I was then checking into see the conforming loan limits for 2010. I am amazed at what I found out. One of the houses (let's call it house A) we are interested in is in the normal limits, aka, $417,500, and the other one (let's call it house B) locates in the so called high cost area, hence the limits is set to $625,000. 

First, I am surprised cause we think house A is in a better location, the township is nicer; there is a very large relative new community near by with many houses in the range of $800K-$900K. As I did more research it turns out the loan limits is not set for each township but for a whole county. House A's county has many shabby townships (aka, many cheap houses) that drag the average price down even though house A's township is very nice and in a completely different category with other townships in the same county. You see where I am going? When a policy is set very generic, covers many places and not chance of localization it bounds to have all this kind of illogical situation. 

Second, what and who does this high cost area high conforming loan limits policy try to help? If a person qualifies for a $625,000 loan he is certainly well off and the least person that needs extra government help. I could understand the government has duty/obligation to help poor people/weak people but this high conforming loan limits certainly is not set to help such people. 

Third, we could argue that there is a need right after the huge crash after Lehman Brothers fiasco.  How long would this policy last? Isn't it time to terminate this kind of artificial limits? To be fair to the earlier localization propose, we should be able to make any loan that has a loan to value ration less than 70% to be a conforming loan. 

So the conforming loan limits could be set:
1. a certain fixed amount ($417,000 for 2010) that would adjust for inflation. It should still requires at the loan to value ratio not exceeding 80%
2. and loan that is less than 70% of the value.
3. No more loan limits. There is no business for the government to sponsor GSEs at all.

It is a shame that FinReg bill doesn't address this issue. 

Don't you love New York in the fall? It makes me wanna buy school supplies. I would send you a bouquet of newly sharpened pencils if I knew your name and address. On the other hand, this not knowing has its charms.-- From You've Got Mail, by Joe Fox

Missed the iPhone 4

It is really difficult to use the iPhone 3G again after three weeks with the iPhone 4. I am going to the local AT&T store to see if I could get it sooner than the 3 weeks quoted by the Apple online store.

I decided on the SwitchEasy PurePlus Protector.

So Oracle sued Google's for Java. What's the effect would it be? First, companies probably won't buy the Android phones for the employees for now; and what would the case impact on Java in general? Does Google has a language in its making? Why does Oracle decide to file this case?

Joe Fox: I think you'd discover a lot of things if you really knew me. 
Kathleen Kelly: If I really knew you, I know exactly what I'd find: instead of a brain a cash register, instead of a heart a bottom line. -- From You've Got Mail


Search Amazon.com for You've Got Mail dvd

iPhone 4 returned

As I revealed in the previous blog, i returned the iPhone 4 to the 5th ave Apple store, along the way I discovered the mainland china grey market machine in its best showing.

Well, the reason I returned the iPhone 4 was because I followed Apple's suggestion, or at least what Apple implies, to my own detriment.

Even before iPhone 4, Apple has decided to remove screen protector products from its retail store, citing that the screen glass is so hard that there is really no good reason to put a screen protector on. I followed suit a week later by removing the screen protector from my old iPhone 3G. the screen looks much better, no more dust be trapped between the protector and the screen. I am happy. And Apple is right, there is no scratch whatsoever on the 3G.

So I decided not to put a screen protector on the iPhone 4 either, partly because of the 3G experience, partly because Apple touted the new screen is 30 times harder. Then on Sunday I almost suffered a seizure when I discovered there were three scratches on the iPhone 4 (I swear I really took good care of the iPhone 4). At first I thought it must be some dirt that stuck on the screen. I used a moist soft cloth trying to wipe them out to no avail. Then I tried to rub them with my thumb and they were still there challenging me. I debated whether I should return it to Apple or not. At the end I just cannot look at my iPhone 4 anymore and had to return it to Apple. I guess Apple has really tested its screen either, or you shall not overestimate. And thanks to the antenna-gate,  I don't need to pay a restocking fee for the return. Horray!!!

Now my AT&T plan has been reverted back to the old 3G contract and I am eligible for an upgrade again. I am ordering the iPhone 4 now. And I am searching the internet to find a good screen protector. I am narrowing down to Powersupport or SwitchEasy.

The Godfather is the I-ching. The Godfather is the sum of all wisdom. The Godfather is the answer to any question. What should I pack for my summer vacation? "Leave the gun, take the cannoli." What day of the week is it? "Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Wednesday." -- From You've Got Mail, by Joe Fox

Incentive

I got up really early today to go to 5th ave apple store to, don't be shocked, to return the iPhone 4 (I will address this in the next blog, I promise). While I was approaching the 5th ave store, I noticed there was a line outside the store. I was surprised. I know that the demand of iPhone 4 still outstrips the supply but 8 weeks after the release and there is still a line? As I got closer I could see there were about 60 to 80 people there. As I walked by them I heard mandarin, Cantonese among the dialects spoke by these people.  It turns out these are all Chinese, or american chinese. Now I am very curious and hooked. I asked two of them for what they are doing here this early, is there a new apple product that I am not aware of. They just smiled at me and didn't say much.
 
So I went into the apple store and got the refund in the most friendly and fastest way. The apple guy did ask me to confirm that my reason for return is due to the signal issue so he could file the report. Then I left the store.
 
Well, the line of about 60 to 80 people were still there.
 
I spend the next 20 minutes to dig around the Internet once i got to the office, trying to find out why those Chinese look like people were at 5th ave that early. I cannot be 100% sure about my finding but has a good feeling. Pause here and take a wild guess.

Grey market, yea, grey market in mainland china. 

Now, there is no carrier carries the iPhone 4 in mainland china yet. iPhone 4 is seen as a must have cool gadget there so there is a huge demand. These mainland china people don't mind to pay extra to get hold to the iphone 4. According to some chinese Internet sites, iPhone 4 32G could fetch around $1,200 to $1,400 in the grey market. That is about a 100% profit.

So those 5th ave Chinese people were there early to make a killing. Obviously they are just one step in this iPhone 4 grey market chain. Someone else would then buy from them (because the apple store basically limit it to one iPhone 4 per credit card per day), find a way to smuggle these phones into china, probably by bribing the customs officials, and then sell to distributors to distribute them to Beijing, Shanghai markets to retail to the now fat-wallet Chinese white collars. This supply chain seems to be surprisingly efficient.

I bet if I go to 5th ave store tomorrow I will see another line with 60 to 80 people there. The line will be there everyday until Apple announce the release schedule for mainland china.  

But as the blog's title imply, what I really want to talk about is not about the iPhone 4, nor about the mainland china grey market, nor those people in the line. 

My real point is people are smart, and they are driven by incentive, be it money, social status, or something else. The Apple commercial machine is powerful and excellent at what they are doing and yet they leave these huge gaps for people to exploit. And people get organized in no time. Now I remembered on the day iPhone was released, I went by the 5th ave store at 9:00pm, There was a huge line. I did observe that Asian American seem to be out of proportion in that line. Many of them, judging by their dress style, the phone they were holding, and their age, don't strike to me to be a person that is determined to get an iPhone 4 for their own consumption on the release day.  

Now let's imagine the government with vast sum of money and tries to spend it. What kind of hole would be there for all kinds "smart" people to take advantage of. As government find out the programs don't deliver what they were supposed to deliver the government then increases the size of the programs. Of course the government has to increase the tax rate in order to enlarge the programs. Sigh. I will let you to draw the conclusion. 

  
You are a lone reed, standing tall, waving boldly, in the corrupt sands of commerce -- From You've Got Mail, Frank Navasky to Kathleen Kelly

Our north neighbour's healthcare

At the beginning of July, I visited Montreal and stayed at a friend's place for two nights. He has a Phd. in economics and has keenly observation on economic issue, politics, social contract there in Canada. He is a frequent customer of canada's healthcare service, broke his left arm in one year and broke his right arm the next year, has a young daughter that need to visit the family doctor from time to time for immune, and yearly checkup. To say it mildly, he is not a fan of the Canada healthcare system. He waited more than eight hours for one of his arm treatment in the emergency room, he could only make appointment with specialty doctor for a 7 month later visit. All in all, the system is "broken". It is cheap, don't get me wrong, but it is "broken".

Would the Obama healthcare reform change our current system to what Canada has? No question that we need to find ways to help the 5 pct to 10 pct people that were left behind by the system prior to the reform. However, the debates for the reform revealed that the president and majority of congress/senate were fixated on the if everyone buy insurance then issue solved idea instead of make rooms for a possible alternative solution. They are more focus on passing a bill instead of passing a bill that will work, a bill not only benefit the 5pct to 10 pct people that were left behind but also the 90pct to 95pct people that already benefit from the system prior to the reform.


Technologically speaking, the world's out of hand. Take the VCR. The whole idea of a VCR is that it makes it possible for you to tape what's on television while you're out of the house. But the whole point of being out of the house is so you can miss what's on television. Radio. Now there's a medium I can get behind -- from You've Got Mail by Frank Navasky

iPhone 4 impression II

After about two and half weeks of usage, I could confidently say Apple has pulled off a true winner here. 

I absolutely love the iPhone 4. The stainless steel band is striking. I could understand if Apple indeed made a conscious decision to trade off the signal handling for the beauty of this band thing (trade off, you would be surprised, happens everywhere on our everyday life.) Occasionally I would experience the signal issue but by now I got used to hold in the "right" way. I haven't put any case or screen guard yet, I just remember to reserve one side of my pant's pocket just for the iPhone 4. No key, no coin, no nothing in that pocket but the iPhone 4. It sits very comfortable there. With the steel band, and the black "gorilla" glass the iPhone is high end luxury goods.


1. Battery life is good! It gets me through the day no problem even with semi heavy usage doing email, browse, pandora, twitter, taking several pictures, and iTunes for about 8 hours. It is such a relief that you don't need to constantly remember to plug the phone to a charger.
2. The best app for me is Pandora. I am getting bored with my own music (I have only around 300 albums). Pandora is so good at picking the songs once stations are setup, I seldom skip a song they pick. I am exposed to many more good songs now. The question remaining is how do they make money and continue to provide service to us?
3. The retina display is so surreal. I am surprised Apple only manages to come up a "4" to name the iPhone instead of a better name be able to fully capture the wonder of the display.
4. Would the current news/trend that Android out sold iPhone in the second quarter make apple executives nervous? Granted I haven't watch much tv in the summer time but it doesn't seem apple is doing much ad at all. They need to comes up smart ads to spread the virtue out. (on a second thought, I don't mind Apple becomes an underdog again!!!)


Improvements for the iPhone (or touch smart phone generally speaking)
1. Battery, battery, and longer battery life. I would be very happy if the next iPhone could give us a 12 hour heavy use. I am sure there are very heavy investment in the battery tech. It is just frustrating that the battery life is not moving as longer as we expect. Does the battery life follow the Moore law? Sometimes it is just not enough to throw more money and  more people at this kind of thing. It is waiting for a genius to make a breakthrough discovery. Sigh. What I really want to say is that why cell phone makers, cell phone battery makers don't need government subsidize while the auto maker needs government to provide tax break for the electric car. This is the most absurd things for the government to do since this kind of subsidiary is to redistribute the wealth from poor people to the wealthy people in the names of environment. We don't subsidize a BMW purchase, and why would we subsidize a electric car?  Since the subsidize completely distorts the price signal it would only slow the pace of the innovation. And at what point we would say enough is enough and stop subsidizing? After 100,000 sold? 500,000 sold? Or a million?
2. Nano coating. It is still way to easy to smudge the glass, both front and back.  Fingerprint is a nasty thing. Could nano technology help out here? I remembered Docker has pants that uses nano technology that is able to resist spill, dirt, you name it.

3. Camera, both front and back. I don't carry around my point and shoot anymore. But there is still more to be desired from the iPhone 4 camera. and both hardware and software. the camera software is huge disappointment.
4. There is no doubt Apple is working nonstop on the signal stuff.


Listen to this -- the entire work force of the state of Virginia had to have solitaire removed from their computers -- because they hadn't done any work in six weeks.… You know what this is, you know what we're seeing here? We're seeing the end of Western civilization as we know it. -- From You've Got Mail, by Frank Navasky

Save barnes and noble -- II

If you buy a CD, you could easily rip it to mp3s without paying extra royalty or fees; or if you buy mp3 direct from iTunes store or Amazon, you could burn them to CDs without extra charge either. However, if you buy a hard cover, and then later you want to read it on your iPad or kindle, you have to pony extra hard cold cash from $9.99 to $12.99 -- $12.99 thanks to apple. Why is that? I like books especially good hard covers that with a good jacket design, good bindings, and with good paper. They are an art in it themselves. I don't mind spend extra money for them but I also like the convenience of ebook. But I don't want to pay the full price again.

So here comes the first suggestion for barnes and noble to goto the mattresses for. They should negotiate a deal with publishers, with which a user would be given a voucher for $1.99 more they could get the digit version if they buy the physical book, be it hard cover or paper mass. Maybe they could charge $2.99 if the physical book is paper mass. Readers would cheer the deal and support barnes and noble in a big way.

Second they could do more promotion in their store such as give away their membership for free, from time to time, offer a discount on the Starbucks coffee, arrange more author signing opportunity, and more kids activity cause kids activity bring the parent to the store as well. They should also design more ads to display in the local store to emphasize the contribution they do to the local community.

The whole purpose of places like Starbucks is for people with no decision-making ability whatsoever to make six decisions just to buy one cup of coffee. Short, tall, light, dark, caf, decaf, low-fat, non-fat, etc. So people who don't know what the hell they're doing or who on earth they are can, for only $2.95, get not just a cup of coffee but an absolutely defining sense of self: Tall. Decaf. Cappuccino. -- From You've Got Mail by Joe Fox

Save barnes and noble

It was said the barnes and noble was asked whether their name could be used in the movie You've Got Mail. Not wanted to be associated with the infamous discount store image the movie is projecting that drove the little boutique bookstore shop around the corner BN rejected the offer. It is ironic that now BN turns out to be the bookstore around the corner that its fate is in serious doubt, given Amazon is doing a major push of the Kindle device by dropping the next wifi only version to only $139.

It would be very sad if BN would go under just like blockbuster video store did recently. to a lot of local communities BN is not just a bookstore but a gathering place for many people, book clubs etc. My younger one just performed his group violin in the local BN store for a fund raising event. Many people play chess in sunder afternoon there. There is a singing group as well. Kids meet there for play date. It serves a noble social functions.

How should BN go the go to mattresses?

"Save The Shop Around the Corner and you will save your soul - From You've Got Mail."

Apple, Google, or Microsoft

Say you are into high tech, and you happen to have some money to invest. You checkout some sites for ideas, and apple and google seems to have all the focus. iPhone and Android, hmm. And Microsoft seems to be making too little and too late an effort to compete with Apple and Google. So you decide to invest either in Apple or Google, and are flipping coin to help you to pick one.

Wrong decision.

Microsoft maybe be late to the smartphone game -- they were actually earlier with Windows mobile, I will leave it to another story -- but that is how Microsoft was operating and that is probably how they would move forward. When they see an opportunity they could pour their energy and people into it and make a killing. That was how they defeated Apple and IBM on operating system, defeated Wordperfect and Lotus 1-2-3 and Lotus Notes, defeated Netscape, made huge gain on game console, good position now with SQL server, and cloud service as well. Now they have set their sight on smartphone with a singularity focus and I fully expect them to make inroad. Today Wall Street doesn't give Microsoft its due respect and its stock price has moved anywhere for the past decade. But Microsoft is make progress on all fronts, especially with Windows 7, the coming office 2011, XBOX live, they are really a money machine and a utility company which has many products to offer -- not like Google that soley depends on ad, the Android maybe popular but it's free --, doesn't depend on a charisma leader -- Steve jobs's health should be a big concern --, even a guy like Steve Ballmer could run Microsoft well enough. Microsoft maybe boring for now -- but has a mole status in many products, even Mr. Buffet wont mind to invest in microsoft given its current situation. Microsoft would not go anywhere but up.

But, there is a but, apple has dominated mp3 player market with iPod for about 8 years now. So who knows. However mp3 player is relative small compared to smartphone.

Disclosure: long on all three, apple, google and Microsoft.

To govern is to choose

Most of us understand the issue, which is why it is so baffling that our President doesn't explain the difficult choice he made, instead he attacked the republicans every time he goes onto tv program. Mr. President, we get it. It is tough job, especially in the recession, with 9.5 pct unemployment, and a huge budget deficit. But that is exactly the reason that you were elected, and that is how it would be tremendously rewarding when job done well. So stop whining about your predecessors and stop attacking republicans already, leave it Pelosi and Reid.

"To govern is to choose" also reminds us why we really want to limit the government's function. To choose also means to sacrifice -- and it normally means some people need to sacrifice -- after all resources are limited, so that when the government makes the choice some people will be left behind. Plus most of the time we would rather to make the choice ourselves instead of someone makes it for us. Mr. Obama seems to think government could do good for everyone in the most efficient way. I could certainly respect his opinion but he should try out his idea in small steps and also back up his conviction with achievements in real world. I had the theory it is because he cannot find many in the recent years that drove him to attack his predecessors. Sigh.

But anyhow, to govern is to choose means Mr. Obama needs to make up his mind and move forward with his idea, hopefully with a positive attitude, instead of just endless debating. A leader will only be remembered by his actions, not by his rhetoric.

The Age of Balance Sheet Recessions

This afternoon I received a twitter asked us to check out the presentatdion by Nomura Chief Economist Richard Koo. He compared the situation USA is in now with the situation Japan has been through for the past twenty years. He concluded that USA is indeed in the same boat. This recession is a balance sheet recession instead of an inventory recession (We are all familiar with inventory recession, sort of, Karl Marx pointed out the inventory recession more than a hundred years ago). 

Richard Koo's presentation

New Economic Thinking

A balance sheet recession happened when the private sectors are paying down the debt even in a zero interest rate environment combined with saving/paying down debt by house hold. Zero interest rate won't have much affect when facing a balance sheet recession, i.e., monetary policy itself is not enough. We need fiscal policy, i.e., the government needs to come in and borrow money and stimulus the economy. So said Richard Koo. 

The recession cause Richcard Koo presented is very convincing. The zero interest policy was introduced more than 18 months ago, and $800B stimulus later (no doubt that Krugman argued many times in his NY Times Column that the stimulus is too small) the unemployment is still around 10 percent. It is maybe why in the second quarter earning reports season that Wall Street punished any company that dares to mention any expansion plan.

I am just not sure about the solution. Should the government borrow more and throw more money at random direction to hope some would stick? Or could the government just cut the tax -- both personal income tax and corporate tax -- so private sectors would have more money at hand and be able to pay down the debt quick and start to spend and expand out quickly. I remember I read somewhere someone mentioned the tax holiday. It is share the FinReg bill didn't mention anything like what Richard Koo presented.

Your 401k portfolio

So most of us have a 401K plan. The 401K portfolio maybe our largest investment besides house. Yet after two brutal downturns from 2002 to 2003 and from 2008 to 2009 401K plan is under serious doubt/attack. I just don't know what could be an alternative (please don't say pension plan. Pension plan, which is kind of like social security, is a ponzi scheme.)

This brings us back to yesterday's entry, there is no need to replace 401K plan, instead there should be low cost ETFs or their peer mutual funds available for 401K investors to select. I haven't done a thorough study on the 401K investment option but I believe the low cost ETF portfolio we constructed in last blog provides a better option than what are available today on majority on the 401K plans out there. It's a shame  the FinReg bill doesn't address this issue.

What can you do then? Well, first you could still construct a portfolio with the similar asset allocation as the low cost ETF portfolio has, albeit suffering higher expense cost, with the selection that you have been dealt in your 401K plan. Second you should call your Senator and Congressman to ask them to do something about it, to force employer/401K plan provide to provide the lost cost option.

An essential portfolio building block

In the last blog I talked about the ETF traps that we should be aware of, i hope that message is getting through and you would avoid those traps in your coming investments. In today's entry I want to mention building an essential core portfolio with appropriate low cost and diversified ETFs.

Here is an excellent article that covers it in details. It is a long article but it covers not only just ETFs but also touches many general investment practices and ideas. It is really a must read if you are going to read just one investment guide (or whatever it might be called).

http://seekingalpha.com/article/15134-the-seeking-alpha-etf-investing-guide

Now It is only human nature that we sometimes (or most of times for some people) think we could do better than others do. Since we are small investors we might/tend to think we could be much nimble than the big guys such as hedge funds and mutual funds "monsters", that we could beat them with a quick movement. Your adrenaline will run high when your pick outperforms. That is all fine but whatever you do you do want to diversify it out. When it comes to diversify you should diversify not just on the assets but also on fund managers, you have to consider yourself as a fund manager since you are handling your own investment. So do yourself a favor, open two broker accounts, one you would be the fund manager in charge, the other one, please let this ETF core portfolio be in charge. After a year you could do a comparison yourself which fund manager delivers (don't forget the tax man effect when doing the comparison).

Beware of Short term ETF trap

I always suspect ETF like USO is for short term investors, I.e., traders but cannot figure out exactly why. Then I came across this article and it explained the issue in a details.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/123577-is-the-uso-etf-a-piece-of-junk

This probably applies to other commodities ETF as well since normally the fund would not hold the real stuff in inventory, unlike the GLD, which means those ETFs would have to use future instruments as their trading strategy which suffers the same contango as USO does.  Even though not exactly the same for comparing purpose, but you could get a good idea how a short term focused ETF would perform by looking at uyg (short term) and xlf (ling yerm) at 5 year horizon.

I hope SEC could force ETF vendors to make this short term/long term distinction more clear.

Not all index based ETF are pass investments. Buyers warned.

Apple should be more arrogant

When Steve Jobs came out on the iPhone 4 press conference and only offered a free bumper case I was furious. At that time I am a iPhone 3G user, have iMac, iPad, extreme base station and extreme express. So you could say I am an apple loyal. And I am waiting to see how the antenna issue would be solved. And I am kind of angry after the press conference.
Then I got an email from the local apple store that my iPhone is waiting for me to pick up. At one point I was thinking that I am going to just let it go. But somehow somewhere deep down a voice just told me to just give it a try and I could always bring it back to Apple within 30 days. I am glad I followed that voice.

After 4 days of usage, I wish Apple and Steve Jobs could offer a better defense and actually say this: folks, look, we think we have in iPhone 4 is the best balance of function and form factor. It is a result of hundred human years of research, design, feedback, testing to get to what we have today. It is beautiful and miracle. We do our best to be perfect but sometimes we found we are restricted by the law of physics. We are digging deeper and trying harder. Hopefully in the next version, or the next next one we could do better and have another break through. But folks, at the mean time, can I have a show of hands, from people who have used iPhone 4, iPhone 3G/3GS for more than two weeks, given what we know now, that you prefer a 3GS form factor? I know what my answer would be. I love the iPhone 4 and there is no way I would trade for a 3GS form factor. Not in a million year. I would not mind to hold it in a right way.

Rich can be arranged

"If you've got an area of excellence - you're good at something; you're the best at something; Anything; Then, rich can be arranged. I mean rich can come fairly easy."


from which movie? You should pause here and read these quotes again. We could replace the rich with success, or power, or anything. The point is that we need to find an area that we are really good at it, and we need to slow, pause and ponder this idea. 

iPhone shortcuts for wifi, bluetooth, 3G

Have you ever wish there is a fast way to turn off the bluetooth, wifi, or 3G on/off on the iPhone? Here is how Android does it: there is a bar that hosts icons that represent these functions. Of course, this is not standard cause the bar span across the whole screen sort of. Apple won't do it that way. 

And it has been bothered me for a while. and last night on the way to the airport something simple yet elegant struck me. A shortcuts screen left to the spotlight search screen could just easily solve this issue. 

One shortcuts screen (16 shortcuts with each icon represent one) ought to be enough.

this is simple, easy, and elegant. Personally I would like these icons:

1. wifi

2. bluetooth

3. 3G

4. Brightness (need two icons, one for brighter, one of dimmer)

5. What else? maybe shortcuts to favorite phone numbers, contacts?

iPhone 4 first day impression

After playing with the iPhone 4 for a day, the feeling is like this: this is a phone should be from day 1.
It is snappy, it is solid, it is cool.
1. Love the multitasking, put the Pandora to background for an hour, put the NPR news to background for another hour. it is crazy. the drawback, the battery went down like hell. Need better, much much better battery in the next incarnation. Wondering what does Apple do with it? maybe in the iPhone 5, that would be the killer selling point
2. The display is absolutely beautiful, but I am from the iPhone 3G camp. Watched some movies, and then the Harvard Justice iTune U video. The quality is stunning.
3. Many apps I used yet to get compiled and small changes to support at least the fast app switching.
4. Maybe I did something wrong. I restored from my 3G but the folders were not completely restored. I have to spend about 30 minutes to organize apps into the folders the way I have it with the old 3G. The synch speed is super, 10 times (i may exaggerate a little bit) faster than 3G. 

Signing off today's blog with a special signature: GCB.

From iPad

So I just want to try it out to see how easy/difficult it would be to use iPad to write a blog. It turns out the iPad exceeds my expectation.
1. It renders the page as expected. No issue whatsoever on displaying the page
2. The virtual keyboard is pretty good to use
3. I expect apple to continue improve the dictionary and the AI of the virtual keyboard
4. I will use more and more on iPad and reduce my usage of my iMac. My Dell notebook has basically been coverted to a entertainment center that hook to my TV and play netflix etc. I expect to move on to AppleTV when the next hardware upgrade hit.
5. I am eager to see iPad to be upgraded to have a better display and more memory. Really looking for the next version as well as the ios 4 for iPad.

look ahead in anger

http://chronicle.com/article/Look-Ahead-in-Anger/66152/

This is a very very good article i have read in a long time.

"Are not all civilizations, either openly or in secret, always archives of collective trauma?" 

Sloterdijk asks in his recent book.


wow!!!

Apple's bargaining

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kübler-Ross_model

It is pretty clear that Apple is still in the third stage. It is bargaining with its user base: could you please forgive us if we just give you a free bumper?

Apple really needs to own up to the issue. I expect there will be more ads from rivals poking fun at the Apple's antenna issue. Eventually Apple's hand will be forced to admit the flaw. And if iPhone radically change the antenna design I could imagine class action law suit will be brought up to target the iPhone 4 design issue.

Even though Apple didn't really hide their head in the sand, they also want to just spin around the issue as long as they could. We will how if would play out. At the mean time I am still waiting for my iPhone 4.

Apple's most important conference

There is no doubt today's conference will be the most important conference in Apple's history. It will be even bigger than the 2007 Keynote when Steve Jobs revealed the first iPhone.

Apple would either win over its fan base's heart or break them. And every other companies are watching to see how Apple could pull off in the face of such a PR nightmare. 

Warren Buffet's word on how to handle disaster is very refreshing: get the facts out and get them out quickly. (You really need to read his testimony before the Congress on the Solomon Brother's scandal to appreciate it.)  It is amazing that after all these years no one seems to be able to grasp this simple concept. American people (and maybe just the human being) are very forgiving as long as you admit your wrong doing and admit the wrong doing sincerely, show remorse and put together a plan to prevent it from happening again.

Omni-communication

Is human being wired to or capable of handling an omni-communication life style?
How much information is too much information?

I mean do I really need to follow my friend's activity on Facebook and Twitter? Do I really need to check CNN for break news once every 5 minutes?

SLOW DOWN A BIT

A few good men

I always like this movie. But lately I have come to like the following line by Capt. Jack Ross more and more. On the scene at the bar he told Kaffee: "I represent the government of United States without passion and prejudice, and my client has a case." I like the way that he refers to the government of United States as his client. What kind of government it is that it could be referred to just as a client.

This piece of opinion by Thomas Friedman regarding the spy case "The Spies Who Loved Us" http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/14/opinion/14friedman.html?_r=1&hp is very interesting. I would just add to that whenever the Russia government could be referred to by an attorney as a client then they are moving in the right direction.

A worried sign in the States that has been developing over the past year is the government think that it could do no wrong, and that given it more power that it could do more good. And I have a very simple argument to it: no matter. I just don't want the government gets into my face. No matter whether they could do better or worse in the short term. We are almost 100% certain that it would do great harm in a long term.

About nothing?

Maybe you are too young to remember "Seinfeld". In that case you should go on line or go to Netflix and rent some to watch over the weekend.
George Costanza was intrigued by the idea of a show about nothing would be watched by many people because it was on TV. I think it is a good darn clever for Seinfeld to declare what it wants to do like that. A sitcom about how the sitcom becomes what it is.
So I changed the blog title to A Blog About Nothing. Hopefully by not setting a topic we would be free to discuss everything, trivial or important current affairs. Bear with me here cause I haven't really figured out what I want to take this blog to yet. Nevertheless A Blog About Nothing is very fitting.

Exciting Events

Life could seem boring at some point

That is why I just added a description to this blog. It has been a while since I setup this blog and posted the first thought about the 2007 stock market. I find it is pretty interesting in re-reading that post. I would even say that it is fascinating that I was thinking looking deeply into the market at that time. It seems somehow I was able to recall the memory with the blog.

That would be the point of the blog. To record some history. My own history as the way I live through it. I hope by stumping upon this blog it would raise your interest into doing the same: recording your own history. maybe you have a blog already and write blogs on a daily basis, great. maybe you "have" a blog but rarely touch it. maybe you don't have a blog yet. no matter, start one then and work on it. If you could keep doing it for say 3 months and then looking back, you won't be disappointed and you would find that you achieve something. Maybe these blogs would pave a way for you to different career path, different live perspective etc.

So long for now. And I will keep writing blogs on a daily basis for the next 3 months. Wish u could join me and do the same thing.

Small investors?

Can small investors beat the market?

1. What exactly is the "market"? Is it that special?

2. Small investor could move more nimble than bigger ones, together with low transaction cost thanks to the discount brokers.

3. So there is a great chance by small investors to beat the market

4. Do set your goal to high though.

5. Say 65% of your money would still go the traditional way of investing. You could follow the ETF portfolio guide from Seeking Alpha to build it out with super low cost. (http://www.seekingalpha.com)

6. That leave 35% for you to play with.